Prognozowanie procesów ekonomicznych - przedmiot oferowany w języku angielskim

obowiązkowe
podstawowe

The aim of the course is to prepare students to build and use models for forecasting economic phenomena to an in-depth degree. Students are familiarized with both the theoretical foundations of economic forecasting methods and their practical use. Issues related to forecasting on a micro- and macroeconomic scale are discussed. In addition, students learn about the sources and possibilities of obtaining data for the analysis and forecasting of economic phenomena.

Study profile: General academic

Form of study: full-time

Type of course: compulsory, module 1

Field: social sciences; discipline: economics and finance

Year of study/semester: 2nd year/3rd semester

The number of hours of didactic classes, broken down into the forms of conducting classes: 15 hours of lectures and 30 hours of exercises

ECTS points: 6 points

ECTS points: 6 points

Student workload balance:

Participation in lectures 15h

Participation in exercises 30h

Preparation for the final exam 30h

Studying literature 28 hours

Preparation for exercise 20h

Preparation of the paper: 10h

Preparation for passing exercises 20h

Participation in consultations 5h

2h exam

TOTAL student workload: 150 hours.

Quantitative indicators:

requiring the direct participation of the teacher 52h 2.1 ECTS points

of a practical nature 20h 0.80 ECTS points

Nicolas Carnor, Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot. Economic forecasting and policy, Basingstoke, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011.

KNOWLEDGE

2PPE_W01 - The student knows and understands in depth the methods of obtaining, analyzing and presenting economic data and their use from

using forecasting and statistical methods and tools, with particular emphasis on economic modeling methods

(KP7_WG5)

2PPE_W02 - The student knows and understands in depth the processes taking place in business entities from the real and regulatory sphere

with particular emphasis on the dynamics of changes in these processes, structures and institutions, and on the regularities governing these processes, with particular emphasis on forecasting these changes.

(KP7_WG7)

SKILLS

2PPE_U01 - The student is able to model and then forecast complex economic processes and phenomena using

advanced methods and tools characteristic of economic sciences. (KP7_UW4)

2PPE_U02 - The student is able to analyze the causes and course of phenomena using modeling and forecasting methods and solve problems based on the obtained and analyzed data. (KP7_UW2)

SOCIAL COMPETENCE

2PPE_K01 - The student is ready to acquire and use knowledge in the field of modeling and forecasting methods to solve cognitive problems and is ready to deepen it as new challenges and problems appear, or to use expert opinions. (KP7_KK3)

2PPE_K02 - The student is ready to assess the state of his knowledge, identify gaps and obtain its missing elements from appropriate sources of knowledge and skills in the field of economic forecasting. (KP7_KK5)

Lecture:

Assessment based on written test exam, 20 questions, 11 questions must be answered correctly. Only those who have passed the exercises are allowed to take the exam.

Exercises:

Evaluation based on a point system including:

- tasks solved during classes - 12x2 points = 24 points

- project (group work) - 10 points

- summary task - 16 points

Allowed 2 absences, the remaining ones must be passed during consultations.

Grading scale:

0-50% points - 2.0

51-60% of points - 3.0

61-70% of points - 3.5

71-80% of points - 4.0

81-90% of points - 4.5

91-100% of points - 5.0