Prognozowanie procesów ekonomicznych - przedmiot oferowany w języku angielskim 330-ES2-2PPE#E
Ćwiczenia (CW) Rok akademicki 2023/24

SKILLS:

2PPE_U01 - verification on the basis of tasks solved during exercises, a project performed in groups and a test

2PPE_U02 - verification on the basis of tasks solved during exercises, a project performed in groups and a test

SOCIAL COMPETENCE

2PPE_K01 - verification based on a project performed in groups

2PPE_K02 - verification on the basis of the project performed in groups and a test

Assessment based on a scoring system including:

- tasks solved during classes - 12x2 points = 24 points

- project (group work) - 10 points

- test - 16 points

Grading scale:

0-25 points - 2.0

26-30 points - 3.0

31-35 points - 3.5

36-40 points - 4.0

41-45 points - 4.5

46-50 points - 5.0

Introduction to forecasting. Basic concepts.

Data acquisition - sources, possibilities, limitations.

Time series - concept, decomposition.

Naive and moving average methods.

Exponential smoothing.

Models of development tendency.

Periodic component models.

Autoregressive models, ARMA and ARIMA.

Heuristic methods of forecasting

Warning forecasts.

Forecasting based on econometric models.

Application of forecasting in enterprises.

Scenarios.

Application of forecasting methods - presentation of project results.

Test.

Tasks solved in Excel, group work - problem solving, discussion