Prognozowanie procesów ekonomicznych - przedmiot oferowany w języku angielskim 330-ES2-2PPE#E
Ćwiczenia (CW) Rok akademicki 2022/23

KNOWLEDGE

2PPE_W01 - verification based on tasks solved during the exercises,

2PPE_W02 - verification based on tasks solved during the exercises,

SKILLS:

2PPE_U01 - verification on the basis of tasks solved during the exercises, a project carried out in groups and a summary task.

2PPE_U02 - verification on the basis of tasks solved during exercises, a project performed in groups and a summary task

SOCIAL COMPETENCE

2PPE_K01 - verification based on a project performed in groups

2PPE_K02 - verification based on a project performed in groups and a summary task.

Evaluation based on a point system including:

- tasks solved during classes - 12x2 points = 24 points

- project (group work) - 10 points

- summary task - 16 points

In accordance with the principles of universal design, it is possible to agree with the teacher a form of credit that takes into account people with special needs.

Allowed 2 absences, the remaining ones must be passed during consultations.

Grading scale:

0-25 points - 2.0

26-30 points - 3.0

31-35 points - 3.5

36-40 points - 4.0

41-45 points - 4.5

46-50 points - 5.0

Introduction to forecasting. Basic concepts.

Data acquisition - sources, possibilities, limitations.

Time series - concept, decomposition.

Naive and moving average methods.

Exponential smoothing.

Models of development tendency.

Periodic component models.

Autoregressive models, ARMA and ARIMA.

Heuristic methods of forecasting

Warning forecasts.

Forecasting based on econometric models.

Application of forecasting in enterprises.

Scenarios.

Application of forecasting methods - presentation of project results.

Test.

Tasks solved in Excel, group work - problem solving, discussion - taking into account the principles of universal design in education.

In the period from January 7 to February 6, 2023, classes are held using distance learning techniques using the eduPortal platform in a synchronous form.